As of the NHC’s 8 a.m. tropical outlook, the biggest threat to Florida could be a large and disorganized area of low pressure that has formed over the western and southwestern Caribbean Sea forecast to move into the Gulf of Mexico this week producing some showers and thunderstorms.
“Environmental conditions could become conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form in a few days while the system is over the southern Gulf of Mexico or northwestern Caribbean Sea ,” forecasters said. “While interests in the northwestern Caribbean Sea and along the U.S. Gulf Coast should continue to monitor the progress of this system, the timetable for potential development has shifted later toward late week or this weekend.”
The NHC gives the system a 40% chance to develop in the next seven days.
It’s the same region where Hurricane Helene began forming as a potential tropical cyclone, before sucking up all the energy of the warm Gulf waters ahead of its eventual landfall on the Big Bend region of Florida as a Category 4 hurricane.
Helene is being blamed for nearly 100 deaths across six states having devastated Florida’s coastal communities with storm surge and wind impact, but causing even more destruction inland as its rains caused mudslides and flooding up into Georgia, Tennessee and North Carolina.
Just which part of the Gulf Coast the system could target is up in the air, but if it were to develop into a hurricane and strike the U.S., it would fall one shy of the record for most hurricanes to do that in a single year with five, according to Colorado State University meteorologist Philip Klotzbach. That happened in 1882, which saw six on one year. Four or more have hit this year, and then 1909, 1985, 2005 and 2020 as well.
Elsewhere, the NHC was eyeing a tropical wave a few hundred miles south-southeast of the Cape Verde Islands with limited shower and thunderstorm activity.
“Upper-level winds are forecast to become more conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form in a few days while it moves slowly westward over the eastern tropical Atlantic,” forecasters said.
The NHC gives it a 30% chance to develop in the next two days and 80% in the next seven.
On Sunday, the 2024 hurricane season saw the development of its 12th official tropical cyclone with the formation of Tropical Depression Twelve.
As of the NHC’s 5 a.m. advisory, it was located about 690 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands heading west at 8 mph with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph.
It’s expected to become Tropical Storm Kirk today.
“A general westward to west-northwestward motion is expected to continue through Tuesday. A gradual turn to the northwest is forecast by Wednesday,” forecasters said. “Steady strengthening is forecast, and the depression is likely to become a hurricane by Tuesday night or Wednesday.”
The long-range forecast has it developing into what could be the season’s third major hurricane, although no threat to land in the Atlantic.
Also no threat to land in the Atlantic are the diminishing systems of what had been Hurricane Isaac and Tropical Storm Joyce.
As of 5 a.m. now Tropical Storm Isaac was located 515 miles north-northwest of the Azores moving east-northeast at 15 mph with maximum sustained winds of 65 mph. Tropical-storm-force winds extend out up to 230 miles.
“A turn toward the northeast at a similar forward speed is expected on Tuesday,” forecasters said. “Slow weakening is expected during the next several days. Isaac is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone later today.”
As of 5 a.m. , now Tropical Depression Joyce was located about 910 miles east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands moving west at 2 mph with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph.
“A turn toward the northwest and north is expected during the next day or so,” forecasters said. “Weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Joyce is likely to become a post-tropical remnant low later today and dissipate by Wednesday.”
After Kirk, the next names on the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season list are Leslie and Milton.
Hurricane season runs from June 1-Nov. 30.
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