The storm system — now called Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine — is most likely to hit somewhere along the Florida Panhandle or the state’s western coast on Thursday, according to an alert from the National Hurricane Center.
“Environmental conditions appear favorable for further development of this system,” the center wrote on its website Monday, adding that residents in the area should have a hurricane plan in place.
Although its ultimate path or strength are not known, the system is expected to produce heavy rains over portions of Central America for the next several days, the agency said.
So will the storm affect Texas? Not likely, said Sarah Barnes, meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Fort Worth.
“That’s far enough east that we should not see any effects here in the Dallas/Fort Worth area,” Barnes said.
That does not mean North Texas will be dry. Rain fell early Monday, and spotty showers may linger into the afternoon. More rain is expected this week, particularly late Tuesday into early Wednesday and again Friday morning, according to the weather service.
But the rain is part of a separate system that will hover over North Texas for a few days, Barnes said. In fact, the rain here will likely help push the tropical cyclone farther east.
“It’s looking like good fall weather in North Texas,” Barnes said.
Experts think 2024 will be one of the busiest Atlantic hurricane seasons on record, thanks to unprecedented ocean heat and a brewing La Niña. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted 17 to 24 named storms would hit this summer and fall, with 8 to 13 achieving hurricane status (at least 75 mph sustained winds). It predicted four to seven of those would become major hurricanes, with at least 111 mph winds.
An average Atlantic hurricane season produces 14 named storms, seven of them hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
So far this year, we’ve seen Tropical Storm Alberto, which brought nearly a foot of rain to parts of Texas, Hurricane Beryl, the earliest Category 5 hurricane on record in the Atlantic, and Hurricane Francine, which flooded streets and knocked out electricity to more than a quarter-million customers in Louisiana.
Hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30.
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