As of the NHC’s 5 p.m. advisory, the center of Francine was located about 135 miles east of the mouth of the Rio Grande River and 360 miles southwest of Morgan City, Louisiana, with maximum sustained winds of 65 mph and moving northeast at 10 mph.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend out 140 miles.
A hurricane warning is in effect for the Louisiana coast from Cameron eastward to Grand Isle.
A hurricane watch is in effect for Lake Maurepas and Lake Pontchartrain, including metropolitan New Orleans. A tropical storm warning is in effect for the Texas and Louisiana coasts east of High Island to Cameron, east of Grand Isle, Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border, Lake Maurepas and Lake Pontchartrain, including metropolitan New Orleans.
A storm surge warning is in effect for Sabine Pass, Texas to the Mississippi/Alabama Border, Vermilion Bay, Lake Maurepas and Lake Pontchartrain. A storm surge watch is in effect for the Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border and Mobile Bay.
The system is forecast to continue to increase its forward pace in a northeast motion toward the northern Gulf Coast through Wednesday.
“On the forecast track, Francine is anticipated to move across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico tonight, and then make landfall in Louisiana on Wednesday or Wednesday night. After landfall, the center is expected to move northward into Mississippi on Wednesday night or Thursday,” forecasters said.
Francine is forecast to grow into a hurricane by Tuesday night but weaken quickly after landfall.
The forecast predicts it to grow into a Category 1 hurricane with 90 mph sustained winds and 115 mph gusts before making landfall somewhere in a cone of uncertainty that runs along the central Louisiana coast potentially south of Baton Rouge.
Hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area Wednesday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions expected by Wednesday morning within the warning areas.
Francine is expected to bring total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with local amounts to 12 inches, into Thursday morning. This rainfall could lead to the risk of considerable flash and urban flooding.
The biggest storm surge threat could bring 5- to 10-foot-higher levels than normal in Louisiana from the Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge to Port Fourchon and Vermilion Bay with lower levels to the east and west.
“The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves,” the NHC stated. “Storm surge is not expected to pose a threat to the risk reduction system levees. However, there may be some overtopping of local levees.”
Some minor coastal flooding is possible along the coast of Mexico in areas that see onshore winds while swells will continue to spread across the northwestern Gulf coastline through midweek.
The NHC is also tracking two Atlantic systems with the chance to develop into tropical depressions or storms. After Francine, the next names on the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season list are Gordon and Helene.
The more likely to form in a trough of low pressure in the eastern tropical Atlantic with a large but disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms running from near the Cape Verde Islands south for several hundred miles.
“Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development of this system and a tropical depression will likely form during the latter part of this week while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph,” forecasters said.
The NHC gives it a 40% chance to develop in the next two days and 80% in the next seven.
A little closer in the central tropical Atlantic is an elongated area of low pressure with some disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.
“Environmental conditions appear only marginally conducive for some slight development during the next couple of days, but a tropical depression could still form during that time while the system moves westward at 5 to 10 mph over the central tropical Atlantic,” forecasters said.
The NHC gives it a 30% chance to develop in the next two to seven days.
Hurricane season runs from June 1-Nov. 30.
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