The Golden State reduced overall greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in 2022 8.1 percent from 2019 levels, and down 2.4 percent from 2021, according to the 2024 California Green innovation Index, an annual report by Next 10, a nonpartisan nonprofit think tank exploring the intersection of the environment, economy and quality of life.
In 2022, per capital GDP in California rose 8 percent from 2019 levels, while per capita GHG emissions declined 7.1 percent, according to the report.
Overall, greenhouse gas emissions in California in 2022 were 13.8 percent below 1990 levels. The state has a goal of lowering emissions 40 percent by 2030, compared to 1990 levels — but to do so, it will need to reduce emissions 4.2 percent per year. At the current rate of reduction — from 2018 to 2022 — California will not achieve the 40 percent reduction until 2037, according to the Next 10 report, released Dec. 12.
Some of the steepest improvements in GHG emissions occurred in the transportation sector. Emissions from road vehicles, which account for 90 percent of emissions in that state sector, were down 14.1 percent in 2022 relative to 2019. This trend is due to a number of factors. In the light-duty vehicle sector, electric vehicles now comprise 26.4 percent of the California car market. Meanwhile, medium- and heavy-duty vehicles are gradually becoming electrified, with nearly 6 percent registered in California last year as fully zero emission, said Sam Wilson, senior vehicles analyst in the Clean Transportation Program at the Union of Concerned Scientists.
“It’s a pretty impactful amount,” he said. “It’s nowhere where we need to be. But it’s good news.”
Emissions from medium- and heavy-duty trucks and buses were down 22.1 percent from 2019 levels, a decline largely attributed to improved fuel efficiency. Diesel emissions — the bulk of emissions associated with trucks and buses — were down 17.5 percent in 2022, compared to 2021 levels. Overall vehicle miles traveled (VMT) for light-, medium- and heavy-duty vehicles increased 1.4 percent from 2021 to 2022. However, total VMT in 2022 was 7.5 percent lower than 2019.
“Since sales of zero-emission heavy-duty vehicles are still rather low, we can attribute most gains here to increases in fuel economy,” Next 10 founder F. Noel Perry said via email. Federal clean trucks standards have increased heavy-duty vehicle fuel economy targets since the 2014 model year, he added. California has also implemented its Advanced Clean Fleets regulation, which created a phased withdrawal of fossil fuel-burning trucks by 2035.
Policies like these in California are seen as the kind of action to move the transportation market toward a more sustainable future, Wilson said.
“We’re seeing huge pre-emptive movements in states that have adopted [the Advanced Clean Trucks regulation] ACT, even though it’s only come into effect in California,” Wilson said, calling the move to electrify transportation “a win for the environment. It’s a win for public health. And it also can be a huge win for fleets that are electrifying, because of the huge fuel and maintenance savings.”
Where the state seems to be making less headway in reducing emissions is in the energy and utilities sector. Emissions from in-state electric generation increased slightly in 2022, compared to 2019, while emissions from imports decreased.
In the last several years emissions from the electricity sector have remained largely constant, neither increasing nor decreasing in any significant way, said Mark Specht, Western states energy manager at the Union of Concerned Scientists.
“It’s gone up and down, depending on the year, depending on what’s happened, especially with the hydro system, with the weather, in general, if it’s been particularly hot,” he explained. “But in general … there actually hasn’t been a lot of movement in the electricity sector emissions over the past six years or so. It’s really just been bouncing around at a fairly consistent level.”
Renewables accounted for 36.9 percent of the energy mix in California in 2023, up 1.1 percent from 2022, according to the Next 10 report. And in 2023, electricity generated from solar — both in-state and imported — actually declined 2.3 percent, compared to the year before.
One area of headwind for renewable-energy growth is a lack of transmission infrastructure needed to handle the considerable swings experienced in solar and wind generation. On nice days with lots of clear skies and relatively light air conditioning use, it’s not unusual to have more solar power than is needed and can be exported out of a region, leading to the “curtailment” of renewable energy.
“It’s, like, trapped in these little pockets of the grid. And there’s not enough transmission to get it out,” Specht said. Some 2.68 gigawatt-hours of power were curtailed in 2023, up 8.6 percent from 2022, according to the Next 10 report — but conversely, he said, building the infrastructure needed to move the clean energy wouldn’t make economic sense. A more substantive policy direction to reduce GHG emissions from the energy sector would be more teeth in regulations, Specht said.
“The thing that’s been frustrating to me is, we have all these goals that are created in an integrated resource planning process … . But there actually aren’t any binding requirements for electricity providers in California to follow through on their integrated resource plans and deliver the emissions called for in those plans,” Specht said.
“What I really don’t want to see is 2030 roll around, and we never really had requirements in place. And utilities haven’t delivered on their plans,” he added. “And there’s no real requirement, and no one’s really held accountable when the electricity sector doesn’t reduce emissions, as much as we need it to, to meet California’s climate goals.”
