To determine how prepared the nation is, NASA's Planetary Defense Coordination Office, in partnership with the Federal Emergency Management Agency and with the assistance of the U.S. Department of State Office of Space Affairs, "conducted hypothetical exercises to provide valuable insights by exploring the risks, response options, and opportunities for collaboration posed by varying scenarios, from minor regional damage with little warning to potential global catastrophes predicted years or even decades in the future," according to a recent press release.
The roundtable exercise, held at the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory in Maryland, also included nearly 100 representatives in attendance from across U.S. government agencies and, for the first time, international collaborators on planetary defense.
The hypothetical scenario included the potential national and global response to a never-before-detected asteroid that had, according to initial calculations, a 72% chance of hitting Earth in approximately 14 years. However, the preliminary observations described in the exercise were insufficient to precisely determine the asteroid's size, composition, and long-term trajectory, the release explains. To complicate the hypothetical scenario, essential follow-up observations would have to be delayed for at least seven months, described as a critical loss of time, NASA said in the exercise, as the asteroid passed behind the sun as seen from Earth's vantage point in space.
"The uncertainties in these initial conditions for the exercise allowed participants to consider a particularly challenging set of circumstances," said Lindley Johnson, planetary defense officer emeritus at NASA Headquarters in Washington. "A large asteroid impact is potentially the only natural disaster humanity has the technology to predict years in advance and take action to prevent."
Some takeaways and gaps revealed from the exercise when facing impact from an asteroid or comet included more forthcoming information about potential threats. Still, skepticism was raised that funding would be an issue without more definitive knowledge of possible risks. Also, a more global response with a UN-led agreement will be needed to facilitate international collaboration for communication and disaster management. The exercise noted the potential threats for misinformation and disinformation and the need for Near-Earth Object-specific disaster management plans, which currently do not exist. The release added that response plans are at a suitable starting point.
"These outcomes will help to shape future exercises and studies to ensure NASA and other government agencies continue improving planetary defense preparedness," said Johnson.
To aid in plans, NASA continues developing its Near-Earth Object Surveyor, or NEO Surveyor. The infrared space telescope is explicitly designed to expedite the ability to discover and characterize most potentially hazardous near-Earth objects many years before they could become an impact threat. The agency's proposed launch date for the NEO Surveyor is June 2028.
"Our mission is helping people before, during, and after disasters," said Leviticus "L.A." Lewis, FEMA detailee to NASA's Planetary Defense Coordination Office. "We work across the country every day before disasters happen to help people and communities understand and prepare for possible risks. In the event of a potential asteroid impact, FEMA would be a leading player in interagency coordination."
© 2024 the Plainview Daily Herald (Plainview, Texas). Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.
