Thousands of new pieces of debris are now hurtling through low-Earth orbit as a result, heightening the threat of collision that current satellites already face from space waste, and that future spacecraft must navigate around for years to come.
The incident highlighted the need for the U.S. and its allies to cooperatively set common global standards for space operations, said Col. Eric Felt, head of the Air Force Research Laboratory's Space Vehicles Directorate at Kirtland Air Force Base. It also demonstrated the critical need for the U.S. to strengthen its leadership role to defend national interests as governments and businesses across the globe compete for domination in the emerging 21st century commercial space industry.
" Russia's anti-satellite test was incredibly irresponsible, creating a huge amount of debris in low-Earth orbit that threatens sustainable operations in space," Felt told the Journal. "It showed the need for the U.S. to be a leader in establishing the framework and norms for responsible use of space, and the need to develop effective technology to mitigate space debris."
Felt is co-author of a new report, released Nov. 18, that includes analysis by top U.S. military brass, government leaders and industry representatives on the critical role space plays in everyday life, with extensive recommendations on measures the U.S. must take to protect national interests going forward. The document includes collective input from more than 230 experts.
It's the third annual "State of the Space Industrial Base" report since industry leaders first came together in 2019 to discuss world efforts to harness the economic potential of space and the threats posed by competing nations, particularly China and Russia.
New Mexico has played a key role in preparing and disseminating the reports. New Space NM, an industry alliance, has hosted two conferences, in spring 2020 and summer 2021, to collect participant input for last year's and this year's reports. It also hosted open online conferences with report authors in fall 2020, and again on Dec. 13, which included Felt and other top military and industry leaders.
It's now helping to monitor progress on adopting recommendations by public and private entities, said New Space CEO Casey DeRaad.
"We've been tracking the recommendations over the last two years and helping put together next steps on what needs to be done," DeRaad told the Journal. "New Space is partnering with other organizations to do that."
Critical role of space
This year's report doubles down on last year's central recommendation for a "whole-of-government" approach for space industrial development, with a presidential task force to execute it. It says the country's space industry is currently "tactically strong but strategically weak," warning that, while today's pace of innovation and investment is at "an all-time high," the momentum is unsustainable without strategic direction through a national " North Star" vision to guide it, and vigorous public-private partnerships to nurture it forward.
Space is "key to winning the future," according to the report.
"More needs to be done to highlight space as a national priority, to make it a part of national strategy," the report said. "... A new public discourse is needed to frame space as an economic domain, as a major source of 21st century industry and jobs."
The U.S. and world economies are already fundamentally dependent on space technology and operations to maintain basic societal functions, to keep industry and government running at all levels, and to adequately maintain and manage military defense in the modern world.
Thousands of satellites placed in orbit over the last 50 years now provide foundational infrastructure to manage life on Earth. And tens of thousands more will be launched in coming years as technology development radically lowers costs and increases satellite capacity to serve human needs.
"Space assets underpin nearly every sector of our society," the report said. "They synchronize our power grid. They synchronize, coordinate and secure our financial institutions. They connect our cities and rural areas, providing long-distance communications for television, radio, telephony and broadband internet. They supply weather, traffic and logistics data to enable city planning, agriculture, public health and transportation."
They also provide advance warning of extreme weather events and other hazards.
And now, with technology developing at hyper speed, government and private industry are laying the foundations to conquer the final frontier, from Earth to the moon and beyond.
More growth ahead
The Space Foundation estimates the global space economy expanded by 55% over the last decade, reaching $447 billion in 2020. Governments and various financial institutions project that will grow to between $1 trillion and $3 trillion over the next 20-30 years.
"More than 100 lunar missions and 40,000 satellites are expected to be launched over the next decade," the report said.
Those investments will provide a transformational bridge that allows humanity to develop essential mineral exploration and mining operations on the moon and on asteroids. It will open up space for low gravity and vacuum manufacturing with artificial intelligence, autonomous controls and robotics for in-space 3D printing of things like biotechnology products that require special conditions, such as retinas, hearts and other organs.
It could convert space into an immense energy-producing frontier, providing essential minerals needed for renewable technology development on Earth while also harnessing solar energy in space to not only provide continuous power to spacecraft, but to beam photovoltaic electricity down to Earth. In fact, the AFRL's Space Vehicles Directorate in Albuquerque is already well advanced on efforts to place the first experimental solar-beaming platform into low-Earth orbit in the next few years.
Space assets will also help tackle some of the most-pressing issues facing humanity, such as climate change. Improved route planning using GPS already reduces global transportation emissions by between 15% and 21%, according to the report. It recommends that U.S. and world leaders include space development as a central tool in all future efforts to combat climate change.
Harnessing potential
To harness the immense economic potential of space, the government must make space development a national priority, elevating it as "critical infrastructure" in all policies going forward. That means developing a nationwide consensus to build and protect the cislunar zone that encompasses all space between the Earth and moon as a "space superhighway," applying the same focus and resources used to develop the continental railroad, the interstate highway system, and the country's aviation and maritime infrastructure.
And that requires vigorous public-private partnerships, Col. Felt said.
"To develop space, we have to build the logistics to enable it," Felt told the Journal.
The government must budget a lot more funding for space development, with most of it going to private industry to do the heavy lifting by tapping into private sector innovation, ingenuity and agility, according to the report.
Retaining U.S. leadership in space is essential, not just for the country's future economic and societal development, but to protect national security at all levels as China and Russia strive to outpace the U.S. to dominate the emerging global space industry. And a national North Star vision and strategy is urgently needed as those countries work to gain a "first-mover advantage," staking competing claims to space resources on the moon and elsewhere that can help them control future development in the cislunar sphere, said Brig. Gen. John Olson of the U.S. Space Force.
A whole-of-government approach will generate massive returns on investment for the government, and for quality of life for everybody, Olson said during a Nov. 30 online conference presenting the report.
"We need that national vision as we build and expand U.S. leadership in space," Olson said. "Now is the moment. We all are compelled to action. This is absolutely the time."
© 2021 the Albuquerque Journal (Albuquerque, N.M.). Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.
