The best weather forecast models of today are still only reliable within about a week to 10 days. With the exception of the newest offering from Google’s DeepMind AI division. GenCast has proven it can predict the weather up to 15 days out with reliable accuracy.
DeepMind tested GenCast against the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts’ Ensemble Prediction System, considered the world leader in weather forecasting. The new model outperformed the leader 97.2 percent of the time in the 15-day range. One of the center’s AI specialists said they’re already working on adopting some of GenCast’s features.
Extending the accurate forecast window even by just five days could have serious benefits. A group of experts including Kerry Emanuel, a professor emeritus of atmospheric science at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, wrote in 2019 that accurate 15-day weather forecasts would present “enormous socioeconomic benefits” because of the extra time they would allow for people to prepare for extreme weather events.
