Already, at least four predictions have been issued, with the big daddy of all storm forecasters — the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration — waiting until May 27 to offer its guidance.
But National Hurricane Center Director Rick Knabb, who spoke Wednesday at the Governor's Hurricane Conference in Orlando, criticized forecasts that are overly specific about how many storms will hit the U.S. and where.
His concern: People won't prepare if they believe they aren't on the hurricane hit list.
"If we at the hurricane center, with all the technology and tools and expertise we have, can't tell you for sure even within five days if a hurricane is going to hit anywhere on the East Coast of the U.S., how can anyone reliably make a forecast months in advance?" Knabb said. "The science just isn't there."
An April report from the Hurricane Genesis and Outlook Project at Coastal Carolina University said the most probable scenario this season is that no hurricanes will make landfall along the East Coast with one hitting the Gulf Coast.
The Pennsylvania-based AccuWeather was less specific with where a storm would strike in its April forecast, but did predict three U.S. landfalls.
Focus on hurricane plan, not forecast cone, experts say.
"The seasonal forecast is a good pursuit of the science, but nobody's seasonal forecast can reliably tell you where a storm is going to go," Knabb said. "We all have a hurricane problem every year."
With more than a decade passed since a hurricane hit Florida, emergency managers worry about complacency. Bill Johnson, Palm Beach County's director of emergency management, called it "hurricane amnesia" during Wednesday's conference.
And Len Pietrafresa, a research professor who leads the Hurricane Genesis project at Coastal Carolina, understands the complacency concern, but argues the science has advanced to a point where landfall predictions are possible.
Pietrafresa is a former chairman of both NOAA's Science Advisory Board and the hurricane center's External Advisory Panel.
"There is internal resistance at NOAA to predict landfalls," he said. "The National Hurricane Center is a great lab — they are like rock stars — but we are not just blowing smoke. We are presenting the science as we know it."
The Hurricane Genesis project developed forecast algorithms that included historical and climatological factors. They even looked at how much snow fell in the Tibetan Plateau, which can change the atmosphere in the Pacific Ocean, Pietrafresa said.
The second most-likely scenario forecast by the project is that one hurricane will make landfall on the East Coast and two on the Gulf Coast.
The project's overall forecast is for 13 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes. That's more than the historical average of 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes, but it jibes with the other published forecasts, all of which called for a nearly or above-average storm season.
"We tell everyone that you can't rule any coastal area out," said Dan Kottlowski, a hurricane expert with AccuWeather. "There is always a chance."
Kottlowski said he also understands the concern that people won't prepare if they're not in the crosshairs, but defended a more specific seasonal forecast, which he said businesses especially want.
"You are going to see a lot more people trying to get into predicting landfalls, because that's where the insurance industry is looking," Kottlowski said. "We're in a changing science."
©2016 The Palm Beach Post (West Palm Beach, Fla.). Visit The Palm Beach Post (West Palm Beach, Fla.) at www.palmbeachpost.com. Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.
