The company released its 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook this month, forecasting an 84 percent chance of an above-normal season with 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes and six major hurricanes.
“Our forecast paints a concerning picture for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season,” AEM Chief Meteorologist Mark Hoekzema said in a press release. “The confluence of La Niña and abnormally warm Atlantic waters creates a breeding ground for hurricane development. We are strongly urging residents in high-risk areas along the Gulf Coast and Atlantic Seaboard to stay vigilant and prepare accordingly.”
The forecast was developed from advanced machine learning models and analog analysis that consider key climate factors, including the expected warmer sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic and La Niña conditions, which tend to create drought conditions in the South.
Several regions face a higher risk of impact from tropical systems this season, including the Gulf Coast, as Texas and Louisiana are expected to see an increased likelihood of storms that make landfall. The Southeast and Florida on the Atlantic coast will see an elevated risk because of projected steering patterns and warm ocean temperatures.
